📈 T+10 Swing Equity Curve
Fixed-capital simulation of the T+10 swing strategy. Initial capital HK$1,000,000, 0.5% risk per trade, max 10 concurrent positions, 10-day hold. Daily mark-to-market.
2026-09-11 update: Earlier T+10 results showed "369% total return" — that was the sum of per-trade %s, not a portfolio return. This page is the honest fixed-capital simulation. See the full daily equity table below.
Initial Capital
HK$1,000,000
Final Equity
HK$997,086
Total Return
+-0.29%
CAGR (annualized)
+-2.15%
Max Drawdown
-1.19%
Trades
32
Win Rate
43.8%
Avg PnL/trade
+-91.07
Sharpe-like
5.83
Skipped (slot full)
55
Equity Curve (2026-06-27 → 2026-08-15)
📋 Daily equity (click to expand, 50 rows)
| Date | Equity (HK$) | Open positions | Drawdown % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | HK$992,992 | 7 | 0.7% |
| 2026-06-28 | HK$992,992 | 7 | 0.7% |
| 2026-06-29 | HK$988,583 | 10 | 1.14% |
| 2026-06-30 | HK$988,583 | 10 | 1.14% |
| 2026-07-01 | HK$988,583 | 10 | 1.14% |
| 2026-07-02 | HK$988,583 | 10 | 1.14% |
| 2026-07-03 | HK$988,583 | 10 | 1.14% |
| 2026-07-04 | HK$988,583 | 10 | 1.14% |
| 2026-07-05 | HK$988,583 | 10 | 1.14% |
| 2026-07-06 | HK$988,583 | 10 | 1.14% |
| 2026-07-07 | HK$989,357 | 5 | 1.06% |
| 2026-07-08 | HK$989,357 | 5 | 1.06% |
| 2026-07-09 | HK$990,744 | 6 | 0.93% |
| 2026-07-10 | HK$1,000,941 | 10 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-11 | HK$1,000,941 | 10 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-12 | HK$1,000,941 | 10 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-13 | HK$1,000,941 | 10 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-14 | HK$1,000,941 | 10 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-15 | HK$1,000,941 | 10 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-16 | HK$1,000,941 | 10 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-17 | HK$1,000,941 | 8 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-18 | HK$1,000,941 | 8 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-19 | HK$1,000,941 | 4 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-20 | HK$989,008 | 2 | 1.19% |
| 2026-07-21 | HK$989,008 | 2 | 1.19% |
| 2026-07-22 | HK$989,008 | 2 | 1.19% |
| 2026-07-23 | HK$989,008 | 2 | 1.19% |
| 2026-07-24 | HK$989,008 | 2 | 1.19% |
| 2026-07-25 | HK$989,008 | 2 | 1.19% |
| 2026-07-26 | HK$989,008 | 2 | 1.19% |
| 2026-07-27 | HK$989,008 | 2 | 1.19% |
| 2026-07-28 | HK$989,008 | 2 | 1.19% |
| 2026-07-29 | HK$989,008 | 2 | 1.19% |
| 2026-07-30 | HK$995,026 | 4 | 0.59% |
| 2026-07-31 | HK$997,086 | 10 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-01 | HK$997,086 | 10 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-02 | HK$997,086 | 10 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-03 | HK$997,086 | 10 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-04 | HK$997,086 | 10 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-05 | HK$997,086 | 10 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-06 | HK$997,086 | 10 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-07 | HK$997,086 | 10 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-08 | HK$997,086 | 10 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-09 | HK$997,086 | 6 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-10 | HK$997,086 | 0 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-11 | HK$997,086 | 0 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-12 | HK$997,086 | 0 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-13 | HK$997,086 | 0 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-14 | HK$997,086 | 0 | 0.39% |
| 2026-08-15 | HK$997,086 | 0 | 0.39% |
Methodology
- Universe: 121 BUY signals from 2026-06-27 to 2026-07-31 (T+10 swing horizon)
- Initial capital: HK$1,000,000
- Risk per trade: 0.5% of equity (position sized to stop distance)
- Max concurrent: 10 positions; if full, signal skipped
- Holding period: 10 trading days; exit at end OR at stop/target (already in return_pct)
- Costs: HK 0.25% round-trip already deducted from return_pct by source backtest
- Mark-to-market: daily equity = cash + sum(open position value at current return_pct)
- CAGR: annualized from (final/initial)^(365/days) - 1
- Max DD: peak-to-trough drawdown on daily equity
Limitations
- No slippage or liquidity filter — return_pct is a backtest estimate
- No shortable filter (T+10 strategy is long-only)
- No corporate-action adjustment (splits/dividends)
- Same "today's top-200 universe" used historically (selection bias, see methodology)
- Single backtest run; no walk-forward / out-of-sample split (planned for d72)
Last updated: 2026-09-11 · Source: data/monthly_backtest/backtest_2026-09-10.json · 121 T+10 signals