10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 75.40 · S2 74.65 · S3 71.31 · S4 63.48
④ Position
77% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (75-80), entry at R1 80, target mid 78, stop 81
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 79.80 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 75.40, stop 81.40
- IF 失守 75.40 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 74.65 → 74.27
- IF 突破 81.40 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 83.79 → 76.97
- IF 跌穿 63.48 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
79.80
Target
77.60
Stop
81.45
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.07%
Reward
+2.76%
R:R
1.33 : 1
Backtest 90d
64% win (n=11) · +4.1%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 76.97
- R1 (today high)
- 79.80
- Last
- 78.80
- S1 KEY
- 75.40
- S3
- 71.31
- S4 (crash)
- 63.48
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.