10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 16.70 · S2 16.53 · S3 19.74 · S4 25.24
④ Position
62% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (17-22), entry at R1 22, target mid 19, stop 23
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 21.50 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 16.70, stop 21.93
- IF 失守 16.70 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 16.53 → 16.45
- IF 突破 21.93 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 22.57 → 30.48
- IF 跌穿 25.24 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
21.50
Target
19.10
Stop
22.99
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+6.95%
Reward
+11.16%
R:R
1.61 : 1
Backtest 197d
48% win (n=27) · +1.8%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 30.48
- R1 (today high)
- 21.50
- Last
- 19.67
- S1 KEY
- 16.70
- S3
- 19.74
- S4 (crash)
- 25.24
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.