10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 0.45 · S2 0.45 · S3 0.49 · S4 0.37
④ Position
87% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (0-1), entry at R1 1, target mid 0, stop 1
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 0.53 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 0.45, stop 0.54
- IF 失守 0.45 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 0.45 → 0.44
- IF 突破 0.54 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 0.56 → 0.65
- IF 跌穿 0.37 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
0.53
Target
0.49
Stop
0.55
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+4.58%
Reward
+7.14%
R:R
1.56 : 1
Backtest 90d
73% win (n=11) · +8.4%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 0.65
- R1 (today high)
- 0.53
- Last
- 0.52
- S1 KEY
- 0.45
- S3
- 0.49
- S4 (crash)
- 0.37
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.