10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 83.40 · S2 82.57 · S3 74.60 · S4 76.00
④ Position
74% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (83-105), entry at R1 105, target mid 94, stop 107
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 105.10 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 83.40, stop 107.20
- IF 失守 83.40 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 82.57 → 82.15
- IF 突破 107.20 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 110.36 → 93.80
- IF 跌穿 76.00 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
105.10
Target
94.25
Stop
107.20
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.00%
Reward
+10.32%
R:R
5.16 : 1
Backtest 197d
64% win (n=22) · +1.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 93.80
- R1 (today high)
- 105.10
- Last
- 99.50
- S1 KEY
- 83.40
- S3
- 74.60
- S4 (crash)
- 76.00
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.