10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 54.55 · S2 54.00 · S3 50.29 · S4 54.64
④ Position
74% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (55-63), entry at R1 63, target mid 59, stop 67
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 63.35 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 54.55, stop 64.62
- IF 失守 54.55 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 54.00 → 53.73
- IF 突破 64.62 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 66.52 → 83.99
- IF 跌穿 54.64 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
63.35
Target
58.95
Stop
66.87
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+5.55%
Reward
+6.95%
R:R
1.25 : 1
Backtest 60d
40% win (n=5) · +1.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 83.99
- R1 (today high)
- 63.35
- Last
- 61.10
- S1 KEY
- 54.55
- S3
- 50.29
- S4 (crash)
- 54.64
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.