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HK · CHALCO

02600.HK 8.48 -1.11%

CHALCO · SELL_R1 · 50% win (197d, n=14) · +3.5% · Phase: Downtrend recovery

Phase: Downtrend recovery Action: WAIT Strategy: WAIT_RANGE · SELL_R1 edge Reliability: MED

註:Backtest win% 係「SELL_R1」策略喺過去 197 日嘅歷史表現(edge), 唔等於今日 WAIT 嘅預測成功率;今日決策以下方 Action Plan 為準。

02600.HK daily K

10-step framework

① Phase Downtrend recovery
② Framework 20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder S1 8.04 · S2 7.96 · S3 9.79 · S4 9.11
④ Position 40% of box
⑤ Bias (短) WAIT
⑥ Notes WAIT_RANGE: in box (8-9), pos 40%, no clear setup

If-then scenarios

  • IF 反彈至 9.13 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry,target 8.04, stop 9.31
  • IF 失守 8.04 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation,target 7.96 → 7.92
  • IF 突破 9.31 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 9.59 → 15.10
  • IF 跌穿 9.11 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm,avoid

Action Plan WAIT

⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃,唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場;全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走,唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃,SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy WAIT_RANGE
Trigger
Target
Stop
Phase match ✗ 唔夾 — 降級風險
Risk +0.00%
Reward +0.00%
R:R 0.00 : 1
Backtest 197d 50% win (n=14) · +3.5%

Key levels

R3 (Aug high)
15.10
R1 (today high)
9.13
Last
8.48
S1 KEY
8.04
S3
9.79
S4 (crash)
9.11
教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.
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