10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 51.55 · S2 51.03 · S3 68.70 · S4 30.10
④ Position
88% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (52-72), entry at R1 72, target mid 62, stop 73
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 72.00 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 51.55, stop 73.44
- IF 失守 51.55 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 51.03 → 50.78
- IF 突破 73.44 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 75.60 → 176.20
- IF 跌穿 30.10 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
72.00
Target
61.77
Stop
73.44
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.00%
Reward
+14.20%
R:R
7.10 : 1
Backtest 60d
40% win (n=5) · +12.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 176.20
- R1 (today high)
- 72.00
- Last
- 69.65
- S1 KEY
- 51.55
- S3
- 68.70
- S4 (crash)
- 30.10
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.