10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 31.86 · S2 31.54 · S3 39.10 · S4 40.92
④ Position
77% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (32-40), entry at R1 40, target mid 36, stop 41
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 40.12 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 31.86, stop 40.92
- IF 失守 31.86 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 31.54 → 31.38
- IF 突破 40.92 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 42.13 → 69.15
- IF 跌穿 40.92 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
40.12
Target
35.99
Stop
40.92
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.00%
Reward
+10.29%
R:R
5.15 : 1
Backtest 60d
45% win (n=11) · +1.4%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 69.15
- R1 (today high)
- 40.12
- Last
- 38.20
- S1 KEY
- 31.86
- S3
- 39.10
- S4 (crash)
- 40.92
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.