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HK · TRIP.COM-S

09961.HK 355.80 -1.11%

TRIP.COM-S · BREAK_SHORT · 80% win (197d, n=5) · +6.9% · Phase: Base building

Phase: Base building Action: WAIT Strategy: WAIT_RR_TOO_THIN · BREAK_SHORT edge Reliability: MED

註:Backtest win% 係「BREAK_SHORT」策略喺過去 197 日嘅歷史表現(edge), 唔等於今日 WAIT 嘅預測成功率;今日決策以下方 Action Plan 為準。

09961.HK daily K

10-step framework

① Phase Base building
② Framework 20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder S1 347.60 · S2 344.12 · S3 359.80 · S4 397.20
④ Position 30% of box
⑤ Bias (短) WAIT
⑥ Notes WAIT_RR_TOO_THIN: stop 已加闊到 1.5×ATR 但 R:R 唔夠 — 等更好嘅位置先入場。 | rr_floor: stop 加闊到 1.5×ATR 後 R:R < 1.2,賠率唔夠,降級 WAIT。等價格更近 trigger 或者波動收窄先再睇。

If-then scenarios

  • IF 反彈至 375.20 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry,target 347.60, stop 382.70
  • IF 失守 347.60 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation,target 344.12 → 342.39
  • IF 突破 382.70 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 393.96 → 433.20
  • IF 跌穿 397.20 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm,avoid

Action Plan WAIT

⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃,唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場;全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走,唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃,SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy WAIT_RR_TOO_THIN
Trigger
Target
Stop
Phase match ✗ 唔夾 — 降級風險
Risk +0.00%
Reward +0.00%
R:R 0.00 : 1
Backtest 197d 80% win (n=5) · +6.9%

Key levels

R3 (Aug high)
433.20
R1 (today high)
375.20
Last
355.80
S1 KEY
347.60
S3
359.80
S4 (crash)
397.20
教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.
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