10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 1,530.64 · S2 1,515.33 · S3 1,248.11 · S4 946.11
④ Position
60% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (1531-1896), entry at R1 1896, target mid 1713, stop 1984
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 1,896.35 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 1,530.64, stop 1,934.28
- IF 失守 1,530.64 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 1,515.33 → 1,507.68
- IF 突破 1,934.28 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 1,991.17 → 1,654.20
- IF 跌穿 946.11 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
1,896.35
Target
1,713.49
Stop
1,984.11
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+4.63%
Reward
+9.64%
R:R
2.08 : 1
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 1,654.20
- R1 (today high)
- 1,896.35
- Last
- 1,750.94
- S1 KEY
- 1,530.64
- S3
- 1,248.11
- S4 (crash)
- 946.11
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.