10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 139.11 · S2 137.72 · S3 158.46 · S4 139.36
④ Position
90% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (139-192), entry at R1 192, target mid 165, stop 207
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 191.84 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 139.11, stop 195.68
- IF 失守 139.11 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 137.72 → 137.02
- IF 突破 195.68 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 201.43 → 222.35
- IF 跌穿 139.36 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
191.84
Target
165.47
Stop
206.58
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+7.68%
Reward
+13.74%
R:R
1.79 : 1
Backtest 197d
50% win (n=8) · +8.3%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 222.35
- R1 (today high)
- 191.84
- Last
- 186.38
- S1 KEY
- 139.11
- S3
- 158.46
- S4 (crash)
- 139.36
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.