10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 144.61 · S2 143.16 · S3 121.73 · S4 122.00
④ Position
61% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (145-166), entry at R1 166, target mid 155, stop 169
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 165.79 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 144.61, stop 169.11
- IF 失守 144.61 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 143.16 → 142.44
- IF 突破 169.11 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 174.08 → 148.37
- IF 跌穿 122.00 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
165.79
Target
155.20
Stop
169.10
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.00%
Reward
+6.39%
R:R
3.19 : 1
Backtest 90d
86% win (n=7) · +2.9%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 148.37
- R1 (today high)
- 165.79
- Last
- 157.57
- S1 KEY
- 144.61
- S3
- 121.73
- S4 (crash)
- 122.00
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.