10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 133.45 · S2 132.12 · S3 122.34 · S4 99.12
④ Position
83% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (133-154), entry at R1 154, target mid 144, stop 157
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 153.67 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 133.45, stop 156.74
- IF 失守 133.45 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 132.12 → 131.45
- IF 突破 156.74 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 161.35 → 149.59
- IF 跌穿 99.12 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
153.67
Target
143.56
Stop
156.74
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.00%
Reward
+6.58%
R:R
3.29 : 1
Backtest 197d
50% win (n=10) · +2.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 149.59
- R1 (today high)
- 153.67
- Last
- 150.21
- S1 KEY
- 133.45
- S3
- 122.34
- S4 (crash)
- 99.12
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.