10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 85.16 · S2 84.31 · S3 74.07 · S4 67.27
④ Position
86% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (85-92), entry at R1 92, target mid 89, stop 94
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 92.49 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 85.16, stop 94.34
- IF 失守 85.16 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 84.31 → 83.88
- IF 突破 94.34 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 97.11 → 82.66
- IF 跌穿 67.27 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
92.49
Target
88.83
Stop
94.50
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.17%
Reward
+3.96%
R:R
1.83 : 1
Backtest 60d
78% win (n=9) · +6.0%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 82.66
- R1 (today high)
- 92.49
- Last
- 91.46
- S1 KEY
- 85.16
- S3
- 74.07
- S4 (crash)
- 67.27
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.