10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 202.94 · S2 200.91 · S3 152.80 · S4 155.23
④ Position
67% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (203-222), entry at R1 222, target mid 212, stop 229
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 222.00 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 202.94, stop 226.44
- IF 失守 202.94 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 200.91 → 199.90
- IF 突破 226.44 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 233.10 → 208.08
- IF 跌穿 155.23 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
222.00
Target
212.47
Stop
228.96
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+3.13%
Reward
+4.29%
R:R
1.37 : 1
Backtest 197d
73% win (n=15) · +18.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 208.08
- R1 (today high)
- 222.00
- Last
- 215.70
- S1 KEY
- 202.94
- S3
- 152.80
- S4 (crash)
- 155.23
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.