10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 388.74 · S2 384.85 · S3 356.28 · S4 381.71
④ Position
80% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (389-514), entry at R1 514, target mid 451, stop 528
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 513.73 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 388.74, stop 524.00
- IF 失守 388.74 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 384.85 → 382.91
- IF 突破 524.00 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 539.42 → 450.33
- IF 跌穿 381.71 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
513.73
Target
451.23
Stop
528.31
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.84%
Reward
+12.16%
R:R
4.29 : 1
Backtest 197d
40% win (n=5) · +2.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 450.33
- R1 (today high)
- 513.73
- Last
- 489.25
- S1 KEY
- 388.74
- S3
- 356.28
- S4 (crash)
- 381.71
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.