10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 142.89 · S2 141.46 · S3 121.99 · S4 132.73
④ Position
69% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (143-169), entry at R1 169, target mid 156, stop 177
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 168.87 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 142.89, stop 172.25
- IF 失守 142.89 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 141.46 → 140.75
- IF 突破 172.25 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 177.31 → 259.92
- IF 跌穿 132.73 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
168.87
Target
155.88
Stop
177.11
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+4.88%
Reward
+7.69%
R:R
1.58 : 1
Backtest 197d
46% win (n=13) · +5.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 259.92
- R1 (today high)
- 168.87
- Last
- 160.73
- S1 KEY
- 142.89
- S3
- 121.99
- S4 (crash)
- 132.73
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.