10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 48.30 · S2 47.82 · S3 43.55 · S4 34.65
④ Position
88% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (48-55), entry at R1 55, target mid 51, stop 57
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 54.58 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 48.30, stop 55.67
- IF 失守 48.30 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 47.82 → 47.58
- IF 突破 55.67 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 57.31 → 58.82
- IF 跌穿 34.65 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
54.58
Target
51.44
Stop
56.70
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+3.88%
Reward
+5.75%
R:R
1.48 : 1
Backtest 60d
50% win (n=6) · +1.5%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 58.82
- R1 (today high)
- 54.58
- Last
- 53.81
- S1 KEY
- 48.30
- S3
- 43.55
- S4 (crash)
- 34.65
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.