10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 998.19 · S2 988.21 · S3 517.00 · S4 183.00
④ Position
61% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
WAIT
⑥ Notes
WAIT_VOLATILE: ATR14 8.8% / box width 55% — 波動太大（thresholds: ATR≥6% 或 box≥35%），range mean-reversion 暫停，等波動收窄先再睇。
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 1,827.99 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 998.19, stop 1,864.55
- IF 失守 998.19 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 988.21 → 983.22
- IF 突破 1,864.55 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 1,919.39 → 1,708.82
- IF 跌穿 183.00 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan WAIT
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
WAIT_VOLATILE
Trigger
—
Target
—
Stop
—
Phase match
✗ 唔夾 — 降級風險
Risk
+0.00%
Reward
+0.00%
R:R
0.00 : 1
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 1,708.82
- R1 (today high)
- 1,827.99
- Last
- 1,507.68
- S1 KEY
- 998.19
- S3
- 517.00
- S4 (crash)
- 183.00
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.