10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 71.00 · S2 70.29 · S3 71.88 · S4 113.47
④ Position
67% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (71-80), entry at R1 80, target mid 76, stop 82
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 80.17 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 71.00, stop 81.77
- IF 失守 71.00 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 70.29 → 69.94
- IF 突破 81.77 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 84.18 → 125.48
- IF 跌穿 113.47 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
80.17
Target
75.59
Stop
81.77
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.00%
Reward
+5.72%
R:R
2.86 : 1
Backtest 60d
67% win (n=6) · +9.2%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 125.48
- R1 (today high)
- 80.17
- Last
- 77.17
- S1 KEY
- 71.00
- S3
- 71.88
- S4 (crash)
- 113.47
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.