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JP · ASAHI KASEI CORP

3407.T 1,615.50 -2.03%

ASAHI KASEI CORP · No edge in recent regime · Phase: Downtrend active

Phase: Downtrend active Action: WAIT Strategy: WAIT_RANGE Reliability:
3407.T daily K

10-step framework

① Phase Downtrend active
② Framework 20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder S1 1,558.50 · S2 1,542.91 · S3 1,450.00 · S4 1,157.00
④ Position 17% of box
⑤ Bias (短) WAIT
⑥ Notes WAIT_RANGE: in box (1558-1895), pos 17%, no clear setup

If-then scenarios

  • IF 反彈至 1,895.00 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry, target 1,558.50, stop 1,932.90
  • IF 失守 1,558.50 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation, target 1,542.91 → 1,535.12
  • IF 突破 1,932.90 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 1,989.75 → 1,802.50
  • IF 跌穿 1,157.00 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm,avoid

Action Plan WAIT

⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃,唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場;全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走,唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃,SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy WAIT_RANGE
Trigger
Target
Stop
Phase match ✗ 唔夾 — 降級風險
Risk +0.00%
Reward +0.00%
R:R 0.00 : 1

Key levels

R3 (Aug high)
1,802.50
R1 (today high)
1,651.50
Last
1,615.50
S1 KEY
1,558.50
S3
1,450.00
S4 (crash)
1,157.00
教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.
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