10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 304.18 · S2 301.14 · S3 274.98 · S4 204.42
④ Position
74% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (304-342), entry at R1 342, target mid 323, stop 354
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 341.69 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 304.18, stop 348.52
- IF 失守 304.18 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 301.14 → 299.62
- IF 突破 348.52 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 358.77 → 333.50
- IF 跌穿 204.42 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
341.69
Target
322.93
Stop
354.24
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+3.67%
Reward
+5.49%
R:R
1.49 : 1
Backtest 197d
62% win (n=8) · +9.9%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 333.50
- R1 (today high)
- 341.69
- Last
- 332.12
- S1 KEY
- 304.18
- S3
- 274.98
- S4 (crash)
- 204.42
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.