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US · O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

ORLY 90.32 -0.40%

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. · SELL_R1 · 67% win (60d, n=6) · +5.5% · Phase: Downtrend active

Phase: Downtrend active Action: WAIT Strategy: WAIT_RANGE · SELL_R1 edge Reliability: MED

註:Backtest win% 係「SELL_R1」策略喺過去 60 日嘅歷史表現(edge), 唔等於今日 WAIT 嘅預測成功率;今日決策以下方 Action Plan 為準。

ORLY daily K

10-step framework

① Phase Downtrend active
② Framework 20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder S1 86.13 · S2 85.27 · S3 86.42 · S4 89.12
④ Position 52% of box
⑤ Bias (短) WAIT
⑥ Notes WAIT_RANGE: in box (86-94), pos 52%, no clear setup

If-then scenarios

  • IF 反彈至 94.12 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry,target 86.13, stop 96.00
  • IF 失守 86.13 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation,target 85.27 → 84.84
  • IF 突破 96.00 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 98.83 → 100.63
  • IF 跌穿 89.12 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm,avoid

Action Plan WAIT

⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃,唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場;全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走,唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃,SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy WAIT_RANGE
Trigger
Target
Stop
Phase match ✗ 唔夾 — 降級風險
Risk +0.00%
Reward +0.00%
R:R 0.00 : 1
Backtest 60d 67% win (n=6) · +5.5%

Key levels

R3 (Aug high)
100.63
R1 (today high)
94.12
Last
90.32
S1 KEY
86.13
S3
86.42
S4 (crash)
89.12
教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.
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