10-step framework
① Phase
Downtrend active
② Framework
20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder
S1 224.97 · S2 222.72 · S3 192.66 · S4 181.47
④ Position
76% of box
⑤ Bias (短)
SELL
⑥ Notes
SELL_R1: in box (225-245), entry at R1 245, target mid 235, stop 252
If-then scenarios
- IF 反彈至 245.30 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry，target 224.97, stop 250.21
- IF 失守 224.97 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation，target 222.72 → 221.60
- IF 突破 250.21 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 257.56 → 221.68
- IF 跌穿 181.47 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm，avoid
Action Plan SELL
⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃，唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場；全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走，唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃，SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy
SELL_R1
Trigger
245.30
Target
235.14
Stop
251.98
Phase match
✓ 配對
Risk
+2.72%
Reward
+4.14%
R:R
1.52 : 1
Backtest 90d
60% win (n=5) · +1.9%
Key levels
- R3 (Aug high)
- 221.68
- R1 (today high)
- 245.30
- Last
- 240.38
- S1 KEY
- 224.97
- S3
- 192.66
- S4 (crash)
- 181.47
⚠ 教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.