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JP · TOKIO MARINE HOLDINGS INC

8766.T 7,693.00 +0.84%

TOKIO MARINE HOLDINGS INC · No edge in recent regime · Phase: Downtrend active

Phase: Downtrend active Action: WAIT Strategy: WAIT_RANGE Reliability:
8766.T daily K

10-step framework

① Phase Downtrend active
② Framework 20-day rolling box + 60-day trend
③ S/R ladder S1 7,186.00 · S2 7,114.14 · S3 5,781.00 · S4 5,300.00
④ Position 48% of box
⑤ Bias (短) WAIT
⑥ Notes WAIT_RANGE: in box (7186-8235), pos 48%, no clear setup

If-then scenarios

  • IF 反彈至 8,235.00 區間, THEN SELL_R1 entry, target 7,186.00, stop 8,399.70
  • IF 失守 7,186.00 (S1), THEN SHORT confirmation, target 7,114.14 → 7,078.21
  • IF 突破 8,399.70 企穩, THEN 反轉睇 8,646.75 → 8,038.00
  • IF 跌穿 5,300.00 (crash low), THEN 中期 bear confirm,avoid

Action Plan WAIT

⚠️ 呢個係條件單計劃,唔係「而家市價買/沽」。只有價格真係去到 Trigger 價先入場;全日冇掂到 Trigger = 唔使做嘢。Stop 一穿即走,唔好等。BUY = 買入計劃,SELL = 沽出/短沽計劃。
Strategy WAIT_RANGE
Trigger
Target
Stop
Phase match ✗ 唔夾 — 降級風險
Risk +0.00%
Reward +0.00%
R:R 0.00 : 1

Key levels

R3 (Aug high)
8,038.00
R1 (today high)
7,740.00
Last
7,693.00
S1 KEY
7,208.00
S3
5,781.00
S4 (crash)
5,300.00
教育用途 only。Backtest 唔等於 live 表現。Always size your position to risk 1-2% of account.
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